The 2000 Guineas presents punters with a conundrum, to favour those coming into the race off the back of a run in one of the recognised trials in the spring, or to side with them turning up on seasonal debut with all the potential of their respective two-year old campaigns intact. There is a ready split in approach seemingly, with the British trainers prefering to take the traditional route of running their classic hopes in a trial whereas the Irish battalions favour the more recent trend of using the Guineas as trial in and of itself, and mapping out the season from there depending on how their charges fare given how early it comes in the season, and the rich bounty on offer late on in the season. In trying to uncover a winner three main races will be considered, the National Stakes, the Dewhurst Stakes and the Craven Stakes, where the form of all the main protagonists intertwines.

Considering first the current favourite Wembley, trained by Aiden O’Brien. He finished second in both the National Stakes and in the Dewhurst and had a busy two-year old career running six times, recording just the one victory when a 1/2 shot in maiden at Roscommon on heavy ground. In many respects he reminds of the stable’s previous winner of this race Magna Grecia, insomuch as he doesn’t have a sexy profile but does look the type to improve with racing. He has emerged as the yard’s number one in the markets in recent weeks and whilst respected doesn’t appeal at the prices on offer. Another Irish challenger just behind him in the betting is Thunder Moon, and is closely tied in with Wembley on National Stakes and Dewhurst Stakes form. Joseph O’Brien’s charge was mightily impressive when winning at the Curragh and was the one to take out of the Dewhurst, given he was travelling best of all at the two furlong pole only for his run to flatten out in finishing third. Perhaps the ground was a factor, and certainly drawn poorly on that occasion and having to challenge down the unfavoured centre contributed, but the same can be said of Wembley, and with a few niggling doubts surrounding the form of the yard as well as stablemate Pretty Gorgeous missing the 1000 Guineas having scoped badly, then he too is passed over at the prices. Both Chindit and Poetic Flare finished down the field in the Dewhurst and despite winning their respective trials this spring in good style, neither appeared ideally suited by the track in the autumn and are passed over as a result as well. Finishing fourth in the National Stakes was British raider Master Of The Seas, who went off the 2/1 favourite on that occasion off the back of two wins at Newmarket. He then got turned over at odds of 1/3 by stablemate Naval Crown in Dubai in February, but then put that behind him in no uncertain style when winning the Craven Stakes from an unpromising position at halfway. The vibes emanating from the Charlie Appleby yard before that performance were that One Ruler would emerge as their number one Guineas hope, but following Master Of The Seas victory, William Buick decided to stick with the Craven winner and that has seen One Ruler drift in the betting consequently. It should be noted that the Charlie Appleby yard are in tremendous form at present, operating at over a 30% win strike rate in the last 28 days, and with Master Of The Seas having fitness guaranteed and being proven at the track on more than one occasion, he must go well. The joker in the pack could be the Charlie Hills trained Mutasaabeq, supplemented for this race at a cost of £30 000 following an impressive win here at Newmarket in a conditions stakes at the Craven Meeting. That race featured very well on the clock and that connections come here has to be respected, but his lack of experience of the hustle and bustle of a Championship run race could find him out in the final analysis.

 

In conclusion, it would come as no surprise to see any one of the fancied Irish trained runners win this race impressively. Picking quite which one has that type of performance in them at this stage is difficult to predict, and given they have been well found in the market, then the instinct is to look farther afield. Lucky Vega makes some appeal for the in-form Jessica Harrington yard and looks the type to improve from two to three, and isn’t far off these based on National Stakes form, for which it should be noted he went off 2/1 joint favourite for alongside Master Of The Seas, yet is available at prices of 20/1 plus. Fitness has to be taken on trust and for that reason preference is for the Charlie Appleby trained runner in terms of a selection. He arrives fit and well, is proven at the track and on the ground and hails from a stable carrying all before them this spring. With many books offering four places Master Of The Seas is the each-way pick to take this race in what is a highly competitive and wide-open renewal.